![]() ![]() Denver ranks 25th against drop coverage this season. That’s specifically what the Nuggets don’t have with Campazzo and Rivers starting. To beat this disciplined Jazz defense, you need guards who can hurt them in the mid-range. In addition to the matchup problem on defensive I outlined above - which is related to fatigue as they have to play drop more to conserve Jokic’s energy - the Nuggets’ offensive problems are worse. Barton is shooting 38% from the field and 32% from behind the arc in his past 15 games. ![]() That has come with a cost in fatigue as well. Will Barton had to play heavy minutes early this season due to both backcourt injuries and Jokic being out for a handful. He looks exhausted after a deep playoff run in 2020, no real offseason, a full 72-games-played season and another playoff run. His field goal percentage is down in the past five games relative to the rest of the season, and his plus-minus is showing the same trend. Jokic is starting showing signs of fatigue. The Nuggets are held together with duct tape and bungee cords. The Nuggets are starting their third (Facundo Campazzo) and fifth (Austin Rivers) guards, with their fourth guard, a rookie (Bones Hyland), off the bench. Markus Howard, who was deep on their bench, is out with a knee sprain. Monte Morris and Jeff Green are out due to COVID protocols, and Zeke Nnaji is questionable for the same. Vlatko Cancar, a fringe rotation player who had been forced to play lately (and had played well) broke his foot this week. All Utah has to do to win this game by double digits is win the minutes where Jokic is off the floor.įatigue and Injuries Have Caught Up With the Nuggets But a big drop off from the Jazz bench still results in them being significantly better than Denver’s second unit. Jordan Clarkson’s availability is important there, and Ingles’ absence will be felt. ![]() One more note: The Jazz have the second best Net Rating among bench units, while Denver is 29th. If Mitchell and Gobert play and there are no other COVID issues, Utah is going to have a significant advantage here. You need guards who can attack the mid-range to beat the Jazz’ system defensively. And Utah is the second-best team this season offensively (Portland) against drop coverage. That’s baked into the number.īut under the radar, Denver is dropping in pick-and-roll considerably more this season than in years past. However, there are some differences this year. Even in their last matchup this season, a Jazz win, the Nuggets had the Jazz on the ropes until Jokic was injured before the half. When you have an opposing center who can make Gobert, the Jazz’s defensive stalwart and systemic anchor, significantly less impactful, it disrupts everything. The biggest problem is, naturally, Nikola Jokic. They are 3-4 in the regular season and 3-4 in the playoffs against Denver since 2019-20. You still want to understand the risk of betting outside of 30 minutes prior to tip because of possible absences, but with the Jazz, I would think the risk is higher specifically at this moment in time.Īs far as the matchup, the Jazz have struggled with Denver the last few seasons for a number of reasons. We’re on the back end of the latest COVID surge in the last few weeks. Maybe Utah’s totally fine and there’s no problem. A player or two enter the protocols, then two days pass and another player enters. We’ve seen a pattern when it comes to the protocols. This is the first Jazz player to enter protocols this season. Most concerning? Joe Ingles entered COVID protocols this week. Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale and Jordan Clarkson are all day-to-day. Hassan Whiteside is questionable with a concussion. Rudy Gobert is questionable with shoulder inflammation. ![]() Bojan Bogdanovic is questionable with a finger injury. There is a reason the three-time All-Star is a six-time All-Defensive selection, and the Jazz will take a significant step back on that end.> Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.Ĭould Pending COVID Risks Upend the Jazz? The 30-year-old is the best interior defender in the league who so often cleaned up the mess when opposing guards blew past Utah's perimeter players off the bounce. Throw in the veteran leadership of Mike Conley, a spark off the bench from Jordan Clarkson and the shooting of Bojan Bogdanovic, and there may be a contender in place. The 25-year-old is also capable of taking over games as a go-to scorer, and the Jazz picked up solid role players in the Gobert trade in Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt. Perhaps moving the big guy and fully giving the team over to Mitchell will improve chemistry on the floor and lead to more winning. It is no secret that there appeared to be some tension between Mitchell and Gobert when the two All-Stars were paired together. ![]()
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